Yes. Of course there is a large probability for our extinction, but I think we'll make it as long as there is a balance between the global powers, and therefore sustained peace.
I think the key to humanity's transition to a Type 1 civilization lies not entirely in our technology progress, but that of our behavior. If we somehow don't destroy each other in the next couple decades, we'll be able to move to the stars and beyond. But progress in peace-building instead of weapon, or even technology building must be achieved.
(Even today, we misuse the technology we already have in destructive ways. We also build too much unnecessary consumer crap and pollute the environment. We will need every resource to get off this planet.)
We've been able to take ourselves out of the jungle, but we haven't been able to take the jungle out of our systems. Too often, are we conditioned to resort to violence when things don't go our way. Too often, do we give in to fear, when we should try to trust. And still, myself included, we find it difficult to let go of the wrongs of the past so that the sins of the father are not passed to the son. No one is really born with a clean slate these days, which is a great pity.
Being the most aggressive and unpitying creature arising from Earth has led us to be the apex species. It is by recognizing the inherent good in us and becoming more peaceful beings is what will lead to our salvation.
Semantically, a type 1 civilization is one that harnesses 100% of the energy falling on it from its parent star and so it could be argued that we always have done that - except for the crucial word, “harnesses”.
Whether we are aware of it or even agree, technically, all the energy that falls on Planet Earth from the sun gets used up because energy cannot be destroyed. However, it is the “using up” that is debatable.
Most of the sun’s energy is used in photosynthesis and cloud formation by way of evaporation of surface water with the balance used in heating the surface (and, of course, ultimately being dissipated into space by radiation).
We need to remember that almost EVERY organic structure on Earth is merely the heat energy of the sun converted into tangible matter and that it can be reconverted by burning back into heat again (wood, coal, oil, etc.)_ The exception to this being geothermal energy that stems from the molten interior structure of the planet.
It is doubtful that there will ever be a type 1 civilisation simply because there would be no point in it and the cost would never warrant the expense.
Having so said though, a type II (stellar) civilisation has been postulated by scientists whereby a Dyson Sphere encompassing our entire solar system would ensure that all the energy of the sun is kept within the solar system and none lost into space. However, in my personal opinion. this is nothing more than a hypothesis because it will never be built (although I AM a great supporter of the maxim “never say ’never’”!)
Of course, the whole idea of a graded system of civilizations is the extremely hypothetical thinking of the Russian astronomer Nicolai Kardashev and is, to say the least, fanciful.
To become a Type 1 civilisation, humanity should be able to control and use all the power that is available on earth. We are improving in science and technology at an exponential rate. So, in next 200 or 300 years, we can achieve Type 1 civilisation level.
However, there is one condition: we do not kill ourselves like in any world war) or get killed by some major natural disaster (like asteroid fall, supernova or hypernova of some nearby stars < 500 light years, etc.)
If we, somehow not get extinct, we can reach Type 2 civilisation level by year 3000s or 4000s (possibly by creating a dyson sworm as dyson sphere is not a stable structure and is too expensive to create). And by next few million years or so, we can even become a Type 3 civilisation. But, we may never go beyond that level.
At the current rate of Technology Growth vs Population Growth I would estimate somewhere between the next 100-200 years or just 2 generations. 1 of 2 things will happen. Either we will DESTROY ourselves , as ALL cultures that have come before us have done , or we will find a HIGHER PURPOSE for Living.
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